These Terms of Service ("Terms") govern your use of predictionsmarket.com and related pages, tools and emails (the "Site"). The Site is operated by Growthmill Inc., a Delaware corporation ("we", "us", "our"). By using the Site, you agree to these Terms. If you do not agree, do not use the Site.
1. What the Site is
The Site publishes information about prediction markets: live and historical prices from third-party venues, articles, comparisons, calculators, AI-generated summaries, reference probabilities and accuracy statistics, price comparisons across venues, a feed of large trades, an ask box, email alerts and related tools. We are not a broker, exchange, trading venue, investment adviser or financial institution. We do not accept orders, hold funds or place trades for you.
2. No financial advice
Everything on the Site is for general information and education only. Nothing on the Site is financial, investment, legal, tax or betting advice, or a recommendation to trade any contract. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions. Trading event contracts involves risk, and you can lose all of the money you trade.
3. AI-generated content
Some content on the Site, including market summaries and answers in the ask box, is generated by artificial intelligence from market data and third-party sources. AI-generated content may be incomplete, out of date or wrong. Always read a market's rules and settlement source on the venue's own site before trading.
4. Reference probabilities, accuracy data, price comparisons and large trades
Where shown, reference probabilities are calculated from third-party data such as weather forecasts or asset prices. They describe that data; they are not predictions, guarantees or recommendations. Accuracy statistics describe past results and do not indicate future results.
Where we show the same market on more than one venue, the price difference and any fees we show are estimates. Venues can word their rules, settlement sources and closing times differently, so two contracts that look alike may not pay out the same way. A price difference is not a recommendation, and trading on one still carries risk.
The large-trades feed lists single trades above a size we set, as reported by the venue. We cannot see who placed a trade or why, and a large trade says nothing about how a market will settle.
5. Third-party data and venues
Market prices, forecasts, news and other data come from third parties, including Kalshi, Gemini and public data providers. This data may be delayed, interrupted or inaccurate, and we do not guarantee it. Venues are independent companies with their own terms, eligibility rules and availability, which vary by state and country. We are not responsible for any venue or third-party site.
6. Affiliate relationships
Some links on the Site are affiliate or referral links. If you sign up or trade through them, we may earn a commission or other compensation at no extra cost to you. See our affiliate disclosure. Venue names and trademarks belong to their owners; their appearance on the Site does not mean they endorse us.
7. Eligibility
The Site is intended for adults aged 18 or older, and you must be 18 or older to create an account. Do not use the Site to trade where doing so is not permitted by law.
8. Acceptable use
You agree not to: scrape, crawl or copy the Site or its data at scale by automated means, except search engines indexing public pages; interfere with the Site's operation or security; evade rate limits or access controls; query the ask box by automated means or create accounts to get around its limits; resell or redistribute our data or content; or use the Site for any unlawful purpose.
9. Accounts
Some features, such as alerts, the weekly digest, a saved watchlist and a higher ask box limit, require a free account, created with your email address or your Google account. You must give a real email address that you control; we may refuse addresses from disposable email services or addresses that cannot receive mail. Sign-in links work once and expire after a short time. Do not forward them. If you sign in with Google, Google's own terms also apply to that sign-in.
You are responsible for activity under your account and for keeping access to your email secure. One account per person. We may suspend or close accounts that violate these Terms, including accounts created to get around limits. You can delete your account at any time from your account page.
10. Ask box
The ask box answers a question or a pasted Kalshi or Gemini link with an AI-written brief about a market we list. It does not forecast events we do not list, and its answers are subject to section 3. It has daily limits per device, network and account, which we may change. A bot check runs when you use it (see our Privacy Policy); you agree not to bypass it.
11. Alerts and email
Creating an account means we send you sign-in links when you ask for them and essential notices about your account. Alerts and the weekly digest are sent only if you turn them on, and every one has a link to stop it.
Email alerts and the weekly digest are information only. They can arrive late, and a price can move and move back between our checks without an alert going out. We may limit how often alerts are sent. Check the market on the venue before you trade.
12. Intellectual property
The Site's content, design, data compilations and software belong to us or our licensors and are protected by law. You may view and share links to the Site for personal, non-commercial use. Any other use requires our written permission.
13. Disclaimer of warranties
THE SITE AND ALL CONTENT ARE PROVIDED "AS IS" AND "AS AVAILABLE" WITHOUT WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF ACCURACY, MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WE DO NOT WARRANT THAT THE SITE WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR ERROR-FREE.
14. Limitation of liability
TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, WE WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, OR FOR ANY TRADING LOSSES OR LOST PROFITS, ARISING FROM YOUR USE OF THE SITE. OUR TOTAL LIABILITY FOR ANY CLAIM RELATING TO THE SITE WILL NOT EXCEED ONE HUNDRED U.S. DOLLARS (US$100).
15. Indemnity
You agree to indemnify and hold us harmless from claims, losses and expenses, including reasonable attorneys' fees, arising from your misuse of the Site or your violation of these Terms.
16. Governing law and disputes
These Terms are governed by the laws of the State of Texas, without regard to its conflict-of-law rules. Any dispute relating to the Site or these Terms will be brought exclusively in the state or federal courts located in Collin County, Texas, and you consent to their jurisdiction.
17. Assignment
We may assign or transfer these Terms, in whole or in part, without your consent, including to an affiliate or a successor in connection with a merger, reorganization, dissolution or sale of assets. You may not assign these Terms.
18. Changes
We may update these Terms. We will post the updated Terms with a new effective date. Continued use of the Site after changes take effect means you accept them.
19. Contact
Growthmill Inc., 6009 W Parker Rd Ste 149-1096, Plano, TX 75093. Email: hello@predictionsmarket.com
See also our Privacy Policy and Responsible trading page.