This Privacy Policy explains how Growthmill Inc., a Delaware corporation ("we", "us", "our"), collects, uses and shares information when you use predictionsmarket.com and related pages, tools and emails (the "Site").
1. Information we collect
| Information | How we get it | Why we use it |
|---|---|---|
| Usage data: pages viewed, clicks, referring site, approximate location, device and browser type | Google Analytics 4 cookies and similar technologies | Understand how the Site is used and improve it |
| Technical data: IP address, request logs | Automatically, from our hosting provider | Operate and secure the Site, prevent abuse |
| Approximate location (country, state or region, city) | From our hosting provider, which derives it from your IP address. If it cannot, we send your IP address to ipapi.co, an IP-location service, to look it up | Show local teams and markets, and decide which cookie notice applies |
| Error reports and page-speed measurements: the page address and the error or timing only | Sent by your browser to our own server | Find and fix problems. These reports carry no cookies or identifiers, and we do not store your IP address with them |
| Outbound clicks on partner links, with tracking tags | When you click a link to a venue or partner. Our server also counts redirects through our /go/ links | Attribute referrals so we can be paid by affiliate partners |
| Affiliate impressions and clicks | The Impact.com tracking script, which runs on the Site for our Gemini and OG affiliate links | Let our affiliate partner credit our referrals |
| Email address, sign-in times, the country you signed up and last signed in from and, if you sign in with Google, the name and profile picture Google shares | When you create an account with an email link or with Google. The country comes from our hosting provider, which derives it from your IP address | Provide your account, send you the sign-in links you ask for and understand who uses accounts |
| The markets you watch, the alerts you set and your email choices (alerts, weekly digest) | When you are signed in and star a market, set an alert or change your email choices. When you sign in, the markets starred in your browser are added to your account | Send the alerts and digest you asked for |
| A record of each alert and digest email: which market, what triggered it and whether it was delivered | When we send you an alert or digest | Keep to the limit of one alert per market every 6 hours, avoid sending the same email twice, and fix delivery problems |
| A record of each question in the ask box: the market it matched, whether it was answered and, if you are signed in, your account, not the text you typed or any screenshot you added | When you use the ask box | Run the box, enforce its daily limits and see how often it can answer from an existing brief |
| A random device identifier and keyed hashes of your IP address and account | A cookie set by the ask box, and our server, when you use the ask box or ask for a sign-in link | Enforce daily limits and prevent abuse. The hashes use a secret that changes every day, so they cannot be reversed or linked across days |
| Signals about your browser and connection for a bot check, such as your IP address, browser type and connection details | Cloudflare Turnstile, when you use the ask box or ask for a sign-in link. It usually runs in the background with nothing shown on screen | Stop automated abuse |
| Name, email address and message | When you email us or submit the contact form (form submissions are stored in our database) | Respond to you |
We do not knowingly collect sensitive personal information, and we do not collect payment information. If you are one of our staff, signing in to our private admin area records your GitHub username, the time and a short browser description, for security.
2. How we share information
We share information only with service providers that help us run the Site, under terms that limit their use of it:
- Hosting and database providers, to serve the Site and store data.
- Google, for Google Analytics.
- ipapi.co, only when our hosting provider cannot tell us your approximate location.
- Our email provider, to send and receive email, including sign-in links, alerts and the weekly digest.
- Cloudflare, which runs the Turnstile bot check on the ask box and sign-in form. Cloudflare's handling of that data is described in its Turnstile Privacy Addendum.
- Google, if you choose to sign in with your Google account.
- Anthropic, our AI model provider, which writes market briefs from market data. When the ask box writes a brief for you, Anthropic receives that market's data, not your question or any information about you. If you add a screenshot to the ask box (signed-in visitors only), Anthropic receives that image so its model can read which market it shows; we don't store the image.
- Affiliate partners and networks, such as Kalshi, Gemini, OG and Impact.com, which receive click and referral information when you follow a partner link. After you leave our Site, the partner's own privacy policy applies, and partners may set their own cookies.
We may also disclose information to comply with law or legal process, to protect our rights or the safety of others, or as part of a merger, reorganization, dissolution or sale of assets, including a transfer to a successor company. A successor will be bound by this policy for information it receives.
We do not sell personal information, and we do not share it for cross-context behavioral advertising.
3. Cookies
We use these cookies and similar technologies:
- Essential: a small record of your cookie choice, kept in your browser so we don't ask again; if you sign in, a session cookie that keeps you signed in for up to 30 days; and if you use the ask box, a device cookie with a random identifier, used only to count your daily questions.
- Security: Cloudflare Turnstile, which checks that a person is using the ask box or the sign-in form. It runs when you use them, without the analytics choice, because the Site needs it to work. The check is usually invisible: Cloudflare reads signals from your browser and connection in the background and shows a challenge only if it needs one. Cloudflare uses those signals to tell people from bots, as set out in its Turnstile Privacy Addendum.
- Analytics: Google Analytics 4 cookies. We have turned off Google Signals and advertising features in Google Analytics, so our analytics data is not used to personalize ads.
- Affiliate tracking: the Impact.com script, which records impressions and clicks on its affiliate links and may set cookies.
If you are in the EU, the EEA, the UK or Switzerland, analytics and the Impact.com script run only after you accept them in our cookie banner. Everywhere else they run by default, and you can opt out. If your browser sends a Global Privacy Control signal, we do not load the Impact.com script. You can change your choice at any time:
You can also block or delete cookies in your browser settings, and you can opt out of Google Analytics with Google's browser add-on. Partner sites you visit through our links may use their own cookies.
4. Retention
Google Analytics keeps user-level analytics data for 14 months. We keep contact form submissions and emails you send us for up to 2 years, unless we need them longer to resolve a dispute or meet a legal obligation. We keep account data until you delete your account, records of ask box use for 90 days, the hashed keys used for daily limits for 2 days, a log of emails we send (with a hash of the address, not the address) for 90 days, and the record of alert and digest emails for 90 days. Your watchlist, alerts and email choices are kept until you change them or delete your account. Request logs are kept by our hosting provider under its own retention settings.
5. Your rights and choices
Depending on where you live, including California and Texas, you may have the right to access, correct or delete your personal information, to get a copy of it, and to opt out of its sale or use for targeted advertising (we do neither). To make a request, email hello@predictionsmarket.com. We will verify the request and respond within 45 days. We will not discriminate against you for exercising these rights. If we deny your request, you may appeal by replying to our response.
If you have an account, you can delete it at any time from your account page, which removes your account, sessions and linked sign-ins, along with your watchlist, alerts and email choices.
Alert and digest emails are sent only if you ask for them. Every one has a link to stop it, and you can change them from your account page at any time.
6. Children
The Site is not intended for anyone under 18. We do not knowingly collect personal information from anyone under 18. If we learn we have, we will delete it.
7. Security
We use reasonable administrative and technical measures to protect information, including encrypted connections. No method of transmission or storage is completely secure.
8. Visitors outside the United States
The Site is operated in the United States and information is processed there.
9. Changes
We may update this policy. We will post the updated policy with a new effective date and, for material changes, give notice on the Site.
10. Contact
Growthmill Inc., 6009 W Parker Rd Ste 149-1096, Plano, TX 75093. Email: hello@predictionsmarket.com
See also our Terms of Service.