Live odds

Climate Prediction Markets

Temperature records, hurricanes, rainfall and climate policy. Prices are the market's probability in cents.

50 markets · prices as of . Refreshes every few minutes.

MarketLeading outcomePrice24h volumeClosesTrade
Highest temperature in Austin on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes84°F to 85°F2¢2% implied$148Trade on Gemini
US meets its climate goals?2 outcomesBy 203016¢16% implied39 contractsTrade on Kalshi
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes66°F to 67°F51¢51% implied$35Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Dallas on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes85°F to 86°F73¢73% implied$25Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Las Vegas on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes69°F to 70°F73¢73% implied$25Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in NYC on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes65°F to 66°F91¢91% implied$22Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Denver on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes50°F to 51°F49¢49% implied$19Trade on Gemini
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?Before 205064¢64% implied15 contractsTrade on Kalshi
India meets its 2030 climate goals?By 203062¢62% implied15 contractsTrade on Kalshi
8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?Before 203034¢34% implied14 contractsTrade on Kalshi
Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes70°F to 71°F65¢65% implied$5Trade on Gemini
Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?Before Jan 1, 205026¢26% implied3 contractsTrade on Kalshi
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?Before 203527¢27% implied1 contractsTrade on Kalshi
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?10 outcomesOil59¢59% implied151K contractsTrade on Kalshi
EV market share in 2030?4 outcomesAbove 10%84¢84% implied39K contractsTrade on Kalshi
EU meets its 2030 climate goals?By 203048¢48% implied5K contractsTrade on Kalshi
Highest temperature in Atlanta on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes72°F or below72¢72% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Austin on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes79°F to 80°F49¢49% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Boston on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes70°F to 71°F38¢38% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Chicago on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes63°F or below87¢87% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Washington DC on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes72°F to 73°F63¢63% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Denver on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes55°F to 56°F44¢44% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Dallas on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes74°F to 75°F53¢53% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Houston on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes84°F to 85°F50¢50% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes73°F to 74°F62¢62% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Las Vegas on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes66°F to 67°F58¢58% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Miami on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes85°F to 86°F67¢67% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes66°F to 67°F44¢44% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Minneapolis on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes65°F to 66°F45¢45% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in New Orleans on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes82°F to 83°F59¢59% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in NYC on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes68°F to 69°F54¢54% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Oklahoma City on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes63°F or below54¢54% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Philadelphia on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes71°F to 72°F59¢59% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Phoenix on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes72°F to 73°F66¢66% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Phoenix on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes78°F to 79°F42¢42% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in San Antonio on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes82°F to 83°F50¢50% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in San Antonio on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes80°F to 81°F56¢56% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Seattle on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes52°F to 53°F44¢44% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Seattle on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes58°F to 59°F43¢43% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 3, 2026?6 outcomes64°F to 65°F48¢48% implied$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Albuquerque on November 2, 2026?7 outcomes53°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Albuquerque on November 3, 2026?7 outcomes55°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Anchorage on November 2, 2026?7 outcomes32°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Anchorage on November 3, 2026?7 outcomes33°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Birmingham on November 2, 2026?7 outcomes72°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Birmingham on November 3, 2026?7 outcomes75°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Nashville on November 2, 2026?7 outcomes68°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Nashville on November 3, 2026?7 outcomes73°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Boston on November 2, 2026?6 outcomes64°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini
Highest temperature in Buffalo on November 2, 2026?7 outcomes62°F or belowNo quote$0Trade on Gemini

Kalshi volume is in contracts; Gemini volume in dollars. Not financial advice. Work out the fee on a trade with the fee calculator, or browse all categories.